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America Lost Its Seat as Economic Driver 11-28-16

The year started with a thud. In early January, Chinese stocks fell over 20 percent after its government issued some poor economic news—notably more than six months of negative corporate profit growth, weak commodities and a weak yuan. All Chinese economic data stank. It surprised many investors to see how fast China’s foul data spread westward. Read more about America Lost Its Seat as Economic Driver 11-28-16

The Market Recognizes Seminal Change 11-21-16

The message of the market remains the same. We now see a seminal change both in investments and in the entire economic calculus. Unfortunately, we still don’t know exactly what that change will entail or how to define it. While infrastructure build-out by a Trump administration could compose part of the new equation, it will likely account for a relatively small part. Read more about The Market Recognizes Seminal Change 11-21-16

Historic Week for All Time 11-14-16

The last week has been historic—in more than one way. Yes, for the first time in American history, Americans elected a President with no previous political or military experience, also the only newly elected president to have begun his eighth decade of life. We will leave to other pundits the many other firsts about Trump.

As Oil Goes... 11-07-16

Over the foreseeable future oil will be the most important variable to determine how the market performs. I won't diminish the role of the election—it could prove very important, but only to the extent that the winner influences the economy and economic prospects; right now the most important prospects concern the performance of commodities. Read more about As Oil Goes... 11-07-16

OPEC Deal Back on Skids? 10-31-16

For all the hoopla in September after OPEC and non-OPEC oil ministers informally agreed at an Algiers International Energy Forum meeting to curb output at the next formal OPEC meeting in November, the potential deal now looks stalled over which nations will cut how much production, and when. Read more about OPEC Deal Back on Skids? 10-31-16